Studies On What Causes Overconfidence... by Steven Novella

[Sagan]

"People are overconfident. That is a clear signal in psychological research that is reliably replicated. At this point it can be taken as a given. The brain is a complex machine, however, and any one factor such as confidence interacts in multiple and complex ways with many other mental factors.

Questions that have not been fully addressed include the possible causes and effects of overconfidence. Dunning and Kruger famously isolated one factor – overconfidence (the difference between self-assessment and actual performance) increases as performance decreases. This effect (called the Dunning-Kruger effect) is offered as one explanation for what causes overconfidence – the competence to assess one’s own competence.

...

The results confirmed what the researchers suspected, that the subjects exposed to the entity article had higher overconfidence than the incremental article, 68% vs 59%. This difference is not as big as when subjects self-sorted into these two groups but that makes sense. In the first experiment the researchers were looking at the subjects’ long held views of intelligence. What is remarkable is that in the second experiment these views were so easily manipulated by reading a single article (at least temporarily).

...

It’s interesting to think about all of the competing thoughts and emotions leading to the end result of behavior in people. With this series of studies we may have one more piece of this complex puzzle – people are overconfident, especially if they think intelligence is fixed, partly because they focus on easy rather than challenging tasks.

..."

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[Chantellabella]

"People are overconfident. That is a clear signal in psychological research that is reliably replicated. At this point it can be taken as a given. The brain is a complex machine, however, and any one factor such as confidence interacts in multiple and complex ways with many other mental factors.

Questions that have not been fully addressed include the possible causes and effects of overconfidence. Dunning and Kruger famously isolated one factor – overconfidence (the difference between self-assessment and actual performance) increases as performance decreases. This effect (called the Dunning-Kruger effect) is offered as one explanation for what causes overconfidence – the competence to assess one’s own competence.

...

The results confirmed what the researchers suspected, that the subjects exposed to the entity article had higher overconfidence than the incremental article, 68% vs 59%. This difference is not as big as when subjects self-sorted into these two groups but that makes sense. In the first experiment the researchers were looking at the subjects’ long held views of intelligence. What is remarkable is that in the second experiment these views were so easily manipulated by reading a single article (at least temporarily).

...

It’s interesting to think about all of the competing thoughts and emotions leading to the end result of behavior in people. With this series of studies we may have one more piece of this complex puzzle – people are overconfident, especially if they think intelligence is fixed, partly because they focus on easy rather than challenging tasks.

..."

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I often wonder if overconfidence is caused by a really low self esteem, no coping strategies, and self delusion caused by not wanting to deal with life.

My older son is so overconfident that he lives on Mars. But I also know he has a really low self image, was bullied in school, and has no coping skills. His over confidence just makes people angry and hurt.